Feb 2, 2017

Why I Don’t Care What Financial Analysists Say

First, to be upfront and honest with you, my youngest daughter has been some kind of financial analysist for most of her career. She absolutely resents my belief that only rich people give advice worth listening to. Because her unemployed husband spends money faster than the Denver Mint can print it she will probably never have enough money to fit my model. Second, I’ve blown off the jabbering of most of that class of employable talking head beause their use of the English language is too imprecise for me to take them seriously. A couple of years before the last crash (they will be coming a lot quicker in the near future until we stay crashed) those nitwits often said, “Home ownership is at an all time high.” The only person I’d known who actually owned his home was my father. The rest of us just rent from banks instead of landlords.

s1.reutersmedia.netSo, now those geniuses are predicting a bad year for Hardly, “Harley-Davidson officials worry economic and political uncertainty globally lowers spending for their products. Plus, HD’s most ardent fans may be aging; young riders may not replace the older fans.” “May be aging?” Now shit, Sherlock. What planet do you yokels squat on? Hardly’s fans are not just aging, they are petrifying. Buying a Harley is the kind of thing a guy puts on his bucket list when the bucket is too fucked up to hold water, eggs, or sandwiches. Hardly and Indian are betting the farm on the oldest segment of an already ancient demographic. For years, the MIC has been pretending the average age of motorcyclists is holding steady at something between 48 and 60, depending on the study and the state and who the results benefit. If my own observations amount to anything, I’d bet the average new motorcycle buyer is closer to 60 than 40 and had a crap load of money (at least $85k annually, according to a couple of recent surveys).

For example, NHTSA says that the average age of motorcycle riders killed in crashes was 42 in 2014. Since you’d expect a good number of motorcycle deaths to be the clueless “youth death squad,” that means a boat load of that age offset must be coming from the way-over-50 crowd. That’s one way to thin the herd. From the experience of several hundred beginning motorcycle classes, I’ve often suspected that Hardly was a secret Republican plot to eliminate a lot of Social Security costs. Admit it, that’s not much different from the Republican healthcare plan, “Just die, will you?”

082415bottomOne thing I have always believed about predictions of all sorts is that nobody knows anything. I have given up trying to figure out what kind of idiot choices and fads humans will follow off of a cliff next and I wouldn’t put my money on shorting Harley Davidson. I wouldn’t buy a Harley, either.

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